Studying the activities of LLC "Element-Trade". Analysis of financial stability, business activity and profitability of the enterprise. Application of SWOT analysis to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the firm. Development of management decisions; evaluation of their effectiveness.

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NOU VPO Humanities University

Faculty of Business and Management

Course work

Analysis of the process of making managerial decisions in the organization

(on the example of Element-Trade LLC)

6th year students, correspondence department

Bespamyatnykh Olga Vasilievna

Scientific adviser:

Dan. Mitsek E. B.

Yekaterinburg 2013

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of the process of making managerial decisions in an organization

2.3 Analysis of the management decision-making process in Element-Trade LLC

2.4 Evaluation of the effectiveness of the management decision-making process at the enterprise

Chapter 3. Measures to improve the process of making managerial decisions in Element-Trade LLC

Conclusion

Literature

Application

Introduction

The relevance of the chosen research topic is due to the fact that the activity of each person is based on decision-making and it is always a choice among many alternatives. In the process of work, the manager is forced to make decisions on a daily basis. A managerial decision is distinguished by a special responsibility, because is of a public nature, affecting the interests of many groups of people, and therefore requires a particularly balanced scientific approach. Making a management decision is the choice of the best way to achieve any management goal in the process of analyzing options.

Management decisions are related to the performance of management functions, including planning, organization, coordination and control of any processes.

The purpose of this course work is to develop ways to improve the management decision-making system on the example of the activities of a limited liability company "Element-Trade". The set goal determines the formulation and consistent solution of the following tasks:

The study of the theoretical foundations of decision-making in management and methods for assessing the effectiveness of the decision-making process.

Study of the decision-making system in the limited liability company "Element-Trade" and evaluation of the effectiveness of the process of making managerial decisions at the enterprise.

Development of ways to improve the process of making managerial decisions in Element-Trade LLC.

In the process of developing measures to improve the decision-making process, it was proposed: changing the decision-making scheme, changing the document flow scheme.

The theoretical part examines the essence and significance of the decision-making process, the stages of the process of making managerial decisions in an organization, the methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the process of making managerial decisions. The analytical part provides a general description of the object of study (the dynamics of the main economic indicators are considered, a SWOT analysis of the process of making managerial decisions in Element-trade LLC was carried out). The design part presents methods for improving the process of making managerial decisions for each of the stages of this process.

When writing the work, scientific and educational publications on management, organization management and management decisions were used.

The initial basis for the analysis of the decision-making process in LLC "Element-Trade": statistics data, accounting data, orders, regulatory documentation.

The object of the study is a commercial enterprise limited liability company "Element-Trade". The main activity of the enterprise under study is retail trade (sale of food products, household goods).

The subject of research in this paper is the process of making managerial decisions in this organization.

The theoretical and methodological basis for writing this term paper was the works of the following domestic authors: Pirogova E. V., Ivasenko A. G., Zlobina, N. V., Lysov O. E. and others, as well as foreign authors: Meskon M. H., Albert M., Hedouri F.

The following research methods were used to write the work: the method of a systematic and integrated approach, system analysis, elemental analysis, observation, etc.

The goal, objectives, subject and object of research predetermined the logic of presentation and the structure of this course work, consisting of an introduction, three chapters and a conclusion. The course work is presented on 59 sheets of typewritten text, contains 4 figures, 14 tables, 1 application.

The first chapter "Theoretical foundations of the process of making managerial decisions" considers the essence and significance of managerial decisions, the stages of the process of making managerial decisions in an organization, the methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the process of making managerial decisions.

In the second chapter "Analysis of the management decision-making process in Element-Trade LLC", an analysis of the financial condition of Element-Trade LLC, as well as an analysis of the management decision-making process in Element-Trade LLC and an assessment of the effectiveness of this process were carried out.

In the third chapter, "Measures to improve the process of making managerial decisions in Element-Trade LLC," ways to improve the process of making managerial decisions are proposed.

In conclusion, the main conclusions of the study are presented.

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of the organization of methods for making management decisions

1.1 The essence and significance of management decisions

Management decision-making processes occupy a central place in the structure of management activities, because it is they who determine to the greatest extent both the content of this activity and its results. The manager has the power, the authority to make decisions, he is also responsible for its implementation, for the use of resources, for the fate of people.

Management decisions are related to the performance of management functions, including planning, organization, coordination and control of any processes. These decisions are implemented in the form of orders, business conversations, instructions, etc. However, not every decision developed and implemented by a leader is managerial.

Management decisions are distinguished by:

Goals. The subject of management (an individual or a group) makes a decision based not on their own interests and needs (although their influence plays a certain role), but in order to solve the problems of a particular organization.

Scale and consequences. The private choice of an individual affects his own life and may affect the few people close to him. A manager, especially a high-ranking one, chooses the course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization as a whole and its employees, and his decisions can significantly affect the lives of many people. If the organization is large and influential, the decisions of its leaders can seriously affect the socio-economic situation of entire regions.

Division of labor. If in private life a person, when making a decision, as a rule, fulfills it himself, then in an organization there is a certain division of labor: some employees (managers) are busy solving emerging problems and making decisions, while others (executors) are busy implementing decisions already made.

Professionalism. In private life, each person independently makes decisions by virtue of his intellect and experience. In managing an organization, decision-making is a much more complex, responsible and formalized process that requires professional training. Not every employee of the organization, but only those with certain professional knowledge, experience and skills and occupying the appropriate position, is empowered to make certain decisions independently.

Having considered these distinctive features of decision-making in organizations, we can say that a managerial decision is a choice of an alternative made by a decision-maker within his authority and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization.

The need for decision-making arises at all stages of the management process and is associated with all areas and aspects of management activities. The decision-making process quite accurately reflects the real problems, relationships and connections that have developed in the organization, and their continuous sequence characterizes the continuity of the management process. Moreover, only the study of the process of developing and implementing solutions makes it possible to evaluate the content side of management, because the content of management is revealed in the content of decisions made. That is why it is so important to understand the essence of decisions.

The economic essence of a management decision is manifested in the fact that the preparation and implementation of any management decision requires financial, material and other costs. Every management decision has a real value. The implementation of an effective management decision will bring the company direct or indirect income, and an erroneous decision will bring losses.

The organizational essence of the management decision is that the company's personnel are involved in this work. For effective work, it is necessary to form a workable team, develop instructions, regulations, empower employees, rights, duties and responsibilities, establish a control system, allocate the necessary resources, including information, provide employees with the necessary equipment and technology, coordinate their work. The organizational aspect is manifested in the organization of both the development and implementation of a management decision. At the same time, a number of its functions are realized, namely, guiding, coordinating and motivating.

The guiding function of decisions is manifested in the fact that they are the guiding basis for the implementation of the general functions of management - planning, organization, control, motivation.

The coordinating role of decisions is reflected in the need to coordinate the actions of executors in order to implement decisions within the approved deadlines and of the appropriate quality.

The motivating function of decisions is realized through a system of organizational measures (orders, resolutions, orders), economic incentives (bonuses, allowances), social assessments (moral and political factors of labor activity: self-affirmation of the individual, creative self-realization).

The social essence of a managerial decision lies in the mechanism of personnel management, which includes levers of influence on a person to coordinate their activities in a team. These levers include human needs and interests, motives and incentives, attitudes and values.

The legal essence of the management decision lies in the strict observance of the legislative acts of the Russian Federation and its international obligations, statutory and other documents of the company itself.

The technological essence of a management decision implies the possibility of providing personnel with the necessary technical, information tools and resources for the preparation and implementation of a management decision.

A managerial decision is a choice of an alternative made by a manager within the framework of his official powers and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization; action to resolve a problem.

Management decisions serve as an integral part of any function of the management process and permeate all management activities - from the formulation of a goal to the moment it is achieved. The decision is the main product of the manager's work. The success of the business depends on the effectiveness of management decisions. Therefore, each managerial decision must be scientifically substantiated and made in a timely manner, comply with the situation and legislative acts, meet the objective conditions for the development of enterprises, ensure the most complete achievement of the goal and rational use of resources.

As a rule, some of the decisions made are not feasible. This happens for various reasons: the absurdity of goals, the complexity of control, the lack of deadlines, the assignment of responsibility to specific individuals. In fact, the above points to shortcomings in management activities that lead to serious economic and social consequences (lost opportunities, waste of time and money, irresponsibility, reduced labor activity, decomposition of a healthy psychological climate in the team). Therefore, the organization of a deep study of management decisions, competent design and observance of the methodological principles for carrying out this work are of particular relevance.

The management cycle always begins with setting goals and identifying problems, continues with the development and adoption of the necessary solution, and ends with the organization and control of its implementation. Analysis of the result obtained serves as a source for identifying new problems and making new decisions, thus resuming the management cycle. The scheme of this process is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Diagram of the control loop

This shows that any control implements a sequence of three main stages:

determines the state of the managed object (problem identification);

develops an optimal impact for a given state (development and decision-making);

implements it (implementation of the solution).

The management decision is formulated as:

A product of managerial work, an organizational response to a problem that has arisen;

Selecting a specific course of action from possible options; the choice of a previously meaningful goal, means and methods for achieving it;

The choice of a method of action that guarantees a positive outcome of a particular operation.

The managerial decision at the enterprise is a creative act of the subject of management (individual or group person), which determines the program of the team's activities to effectively resolve the urgent problem based on knowledge of the objective laws of the functioning of the controlled system and the analysis of information about its state.

Thus, a managerial decision is associated with the performance of managerial functions, including planning, organization, coordination and control of any processes. Solutions are implemented in the form of orders, business conversations, instructions, etc.

A managerial decision is a choice of an alternative made by a decision maker within the framework of his authority and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization.

The need for decision-making arises at all stages of the management process and is associated with all areas and aspects of management activities. The decision-making process quite accurately reflects the real problems, relationships and connections that have developed in the organization, and their continuous sequence characterizes the continuity of the management process.

The development of effective solutions is the basis for ensuring the competitiveness of products and firms in the market, the formation of rational organizational structures, the implementation of the correct personnel policy and work, the regulation of socio-psychological relations at the enterprise, and the creation of a positive image.

Deficiencies in managerial activity lead to serious economic and social consequences (lost opportunities, waste of time and money, irresponsibility, reduced labor activity, decomposition of a healthy psychological climate in the team). Therefore, the organization of a deep study of management decisions, competent design and observance of the methodological principles for carrying out this work are of particular relevance.

Management decisions act as a way of constant influence of the control system on the controlled one (the subject on the control object), which ultimately leads to the achievement of the set goals. This is a permanent link between the two subsystems, without which the enterprise as a system cannot function. This circumstance emphasizes the determining place of the managerial decision in the management process.

1.2 Stages of the process of making managerial decisions in an organization

Solving a problem very often requires not a single solution, but a certain sequence of solutions and their implementation. Therefore, a decision is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that develops over time and has a certain structure.

The management process consists of repetitive decision-making processes related to the performance of managerial functions. In the process of performing management functions, managers have to make a large number of decisions, carrying out planning, organizing work, motivating people employed in the organization, controlling and coordinating all the processes that take place in it.

The simplest decision-making scheme assumes that the process is a movement from one stage to another; after identifying the problem and establishing the conditions and factors that led to its occurrence, solutions are developed, from which the best is selected. The number of options developed and considered depends on many factors, and above all on the time, resources and information available to developers. The main constraint is the time within which a decision must be made. Therefore, in parallel with the development of options, they are evaluated, and the final decision is made by choosing the best of those that were prepared and considered in the planned period of time.

The most complete and visual representation of the decision-making process is given by the diagram shown in Figure 2, which reflects its main stages and the order in which they follow.

Rice. 2. The process of making a managerial decision

For the need to make a management decision, a signal is needed about an external or internal influence that has caused or is capable of causing a deviation from the specified mode of the system's functioning, i.e. presence of a managerial situation. Therefore, one of the most important conditions for making the right decision is to analyze the situation. Analysis of the management situation requires the collection and processing of information. This stage performs the function of the organization's perception of the external and internal environment. Data on the state of the main environmental factors and the state of affairs in the organization are received by managers and specialists who classify, analyze information and compare the actual values ​​of controlled parameters with planned or predicted ones, which in turn allows them to find out the problems that should be solved. For the need to make a management decision, a signal is needed about an external or internal influence that has caused or is capable of causing a deviation from the specified mode of the system's functioning, i.e. presence of a managerial situation. Therefore, one of the most important conditions for making the right decision is to analyze the situation.

The first step towards solving a problem is its definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. The problem is the discrepancy between the desired and actual state of the managed object. Identifying and formulating a problem is a complex procedure. The fact is that at the time of their emergence, many of the most important problems are poorly structured, i.e. do not contain obvious goals, alternative ways to achieve them, ideas about the costs and effects associated with each of the options. And bringing these problems to quantitative certainty (structuring) requires from managers not only knowledge and experience, but also talent, intuition, and creativity. We must also not forget that all elements and activities in the organization are interconnected and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining the problem to be solved, one should strive to ensure that the number of newly emerging problems is minimal.

Definition of selection criteria. Before considering possible solutions to the problem, the manager needs to determine the indicators by which alternatives will be compared and the best choice will be made. These indicators are called selection criteria.

The next stage is the development of a set of alternative solutions to the problem, ideally it is desirable to identify all possible alternative solutions to the problem, only in this case the solution can be optimal. However, in practice, the leader does not and cannot have such stocks of knowledge and time to formulate and evaluate every possible alternative. Therefore, he usually limits the number of comparison options to just a few alternatives that seem to be the most suitable.

Choice of an alternative. If the problem has been correctly identified and alternative solutions have been carefully weighed and evaluated, it is relatively easy to make a choice, that is, to make a decision. The manager simply chooses the alternative with the most favorable overall consequences. However, if the problem is complex and many trade-offs have to be taken into account, or if information and analysis are subjective, it may happen that no alternative is the best choice. In this case, good judgment and experience play a major role.

Although it is ideal for a manager to achieve an optimal solution, the manager, as a rule, does not dream of such in practice. Usually the optimal solution is not found due to time constraints and the inability to take into account all relevant information and alternatives. Because of these limitations, the leader tends to choose a course of action that is obviously acceptable, but not necessarily the best possible.

In modern management systems, as a result of the division of labor, a situation has developed in which some employees of the organization prepare and develop a decision, accept or approve others, and still others carry out. In other words, the manager often approves and bears responsibility for a solution that he did not develop, the specialists who prepared and analyzed the solution do not participate in its implementation, and the performers do not take part in the preparation and discussion of the decisions being prepared. Management decision-making in an organization is often mistakenly viewed as an individual rather than a group process. It is the organization, and not the individual leader, who must respond to emerging problems. And not one leader, but all members of the organization should strive to improve the efficiency of its work. Of course, managers choose the course for the organization, but for the decision to be implemented, the joint action of all members of the organization is necessary. Therefore, the stage of coordination plays a very significant role in group decision-making processes. Recognition of a solution is rarely automatic, even if it is clearly a good one. The probability of quick and effective implementation increases significantly when the performers have the opportunity to express their opinion, make suggestions, comments.

The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative: to obtain a real effect, the decision made must be implemented. This is the main task of the implementation management phase.

For the successful implementation of the solution, first of all, it is necessary to determine the complex of works and resources and distribute them according to the performers and deadlines, i.e. foresee who, where, when and what actions should be taken and what resources are needed for this. If we are talking about sufficiently large solutions, this may require the development of a program to implement the solution. During the implementation of this plan, the leader must monitor how the decision is being implemented, provide assistance if necessary, and make certain adjustments.

Even after the decision is finally put into effect, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely completed, because. it remains to be seen whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs the function of feedback in this process. At this stage, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to receive. It should not be forgotten that the solution is always temporary. The term of its effective action can be considered equal to the period of relative constancy of the problem situation. Outside it, the solution may cease to have an effect and even turn into its opposite - not to contribute to the solution of the problem, but to exacerbate it. In this regard, the main task of control is to timely identify the decreasing effectiveness of the decision and the need to correct it or make a new decision. In addition, the implementation of this stage is a source of accumulation and systematization of experience in decision-making.

Each organization has features of making managerial decisions, determined by the nature and specifics of its activities, organizational structure, and the system of intra-company communication. However, the process of developing a management decision has something in common for an organization. We must also not forget that all elements of the organization's activities are interconnected and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining a solution to a problem, one should strive to ensure that the number of newly emerging problems is minimal.

So, the management process consists of repetitive decision-making processes related to the performance of managerial functions.

For the need to make a management decision, a signal is needed about an external or internal influence that has caused or is capable of causing a deviation from the specified mode of system operation.

Before considering possible solutions to the problem, the manager needs to determine the indicators by which alternatives will be compared and the best choice will be made.

The next stage is the development of a set of alternative solutions to the problem, ideally it is desirable to identify all possible alternative solutions to the problem, only in this case the solution can be optimal.

For the successful implementation of the solution, it is necessary to determine the set of works and resources and distribute them by performers and deadlines, i.e. foresee who, where, when and what actions should be taken and what resources are needed for this. During the implementation of this plan, the leader must monitor how the decision is being implemented, provide assistance if necessary, and make certain adjustments.

Even after the decision is finally put into effect, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely completed, because. it remains to be seen whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs the function of feedback in this process. At this stage, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to receive. The main task of control is to timely identify the decreasing effectiveness of the solution and the need to correct it or make a new decision.

1.3 Methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the management decision-making process

Decision-making is the main tool for managing influence, because it is in the development of decisions, their adoption, organization and control that the activity of the entire management apparatus lies. The effectiveness of management decisions is the main characteristic of the decisions made, which is determined by the quality of the decision, its impact on improving performance, as well as the emotional agreement of the performers with it. Evaluation of the effectiveness of managerial decision-making plays an important role in the activities of the entire enterprise as a whole. It is necessary for the further work of the organization, because if the decision made turns out to be ineffective, then the work of all departments will also be ineffective.

It should be noted that for the successful implementation of the decisions made, the organization must have a mechanism for their implementation, the main tasks of which are: development of an implementation program, management of implementation, control over execution, evaluation of results. Designing and implementing solutions that provide always high performance is a very difficult task even for experienced managers. The effect of the implementation of a management decision does not always correspond to the expected one, but, despite this, there must be a constant desire to maximize this effect.

The task of determining the effectiveness of managerial decisions is the most complex and controversial problem of management. It is impossible to consider the effectiveness of a management decision and its implementation in isolation. This is due to the fact that the effectiveness of the decision lies not so much in its absolute correctness, but in the fact that, being implemented consistently and on time, it will achieve the goal. Consequently, the effectiveness of managerial decisions depends both on the quality of the decisions themselves and on the quality of their implementation.

Efficiency is understood as the result of activity achieved through the work of the entire team (including employees of the management apparatus), and also efficiency reflects the effectiveness of the actual management activities. In one sense and another, general indicators and a system of particular indicators of economic and social efficiency are used to characterize efficiency.

Figure 3. Calculation scheme for assessing management efficiency

To assess the economic efficiency of management in a broad sense, the following formula is used:

There are a lot of private indicators of the economic efficiency of the work of the labor collective, among them: profitability, turnover, return on investment, capital intensity, capital productivity, labor productivity, the ratio of wage growth and labor productivity, etc.

General indicators of social efficiency in a broad sense can be:

The degree of fulfillment of consumer orders;

The share of the company's sales in the market, etc.

Particular indicators of social efficiency are:

Timeliness of order fulfillment;

Completeness of order fulfillment;

Provision of additional services;

After-sales service, etc.

The generalizing indicator of economic efficiency of management in the narrow sense is calculated in the following way:

Private indicators:

The share of administrative and management expenses in the total cost of the enterprise;

The share of the number of managerial employees in the total number of employees at the enterprise;

Manageability load (actual number of employees per employee of the management apparatus), etc.

Generalizing indicators of social efficiency in the narrow sense are:

The share of decisions taken at the suggestion of employees of the labor collective,

The number of employees involved in the development of a management decision.

Private indicators of social efficiency include: the degree of technical equipment of managerial work, the turnover of employees in the management apparatus, the qualified level of personnel, etc.

It is also legitimate to evaluate the effectiveness of the performance of individual management functions: planning, organization, motivation, control (the work of individual departments of the management apparatus). For this, a set of indicators is also used that reflects the specifics of activities for each management function. So, for example, according to the planning function, the degree of achievement of the set goals (planned tasks) is assessed; according to the function of the organization - the equipment of the enterprise with modern technological equipment, staff turnover; according to the function of motivation - the methods used to influence the team (encouragement, punishment, their ratio); by control function - the number of violations of labor, technological discipline, etc.

Evaluation of management efficiency can be carried out for various calendar periods of time (month, quarter, year). The dynamics of these indicators, as well as comparison with similar data of similar enterprises operating in similar natural-geographical and economic conditions, make it possible to draw a conclusion about the effectiveness of the management apparatus.

So you can evaluate the effectiveness of the work of the management apparatus as a whole, as well as specific decisions. In the first case, efficiency reflects the effectiveness of the management process, which is manifested through a set of decisions made and implemented. In the second case, the assessment methodology outlined is quite acceptable for assessing individual management decisions.

In addition, three groups of indicators (criteria) are taken into account and considered, characterizing:

Time costs (efficiency of the process);

Resource costs and economic result (resource intensity and process effectiveness);

The degree of achievement of goals (target effects).

Efficiency of the management process (implementation of strategic changes). It is characterized by the dynamics of indicators of time spent on the performance of systemic functions of the organization.

Depending on the configuration of the control system, some of the functions in its subsystems, in terms of time, can be performed sequentially (i.e., condition each other), and some can be performed in parallel (independently). But in any case, the desire to reduce the complexity of operations in all departments will have a positive effect on the effectiveness of management, its flexibility and maneuverability.

T is an indicator of the complexity of performing managerial functions,

Ср - the number of employees in certain positions:

Feff - effective working time fund of the corresponding calendar period.

So, reducing the complexity of the management operation reduces the need for labor resources. This, in turn, will reduce the need for financial resources (in the form of wages, related deductions, administrative and social overheads), material resources (in the form of equipment, auxiliary materials, inventory, space, energy), information resources (in the form of incoming and outgoing information). Knowing the specific standards for these resources, the approximate prices for them, it is possible to determine the first (reduced) component of the calculation of the effect of direct time savings by calculation.

The same goals can be achieved at different costs, so the main criterion for the effectiveness of a solution is the ratio of the effect obtained as a result of its implementation, expressed as an indicator of the degree of achievement of the goal, to the amount of costs for developing the solution and its implementation. In such situations, one of the most commonly used methods for evaluating the effectiveness of a solution is the "cost-profit" method, in which efficiency is quantitatively characterized by the profit per unit of costs, where "profit" is understood as a certain set of criteria that characterize a particular solution. Such criteria can include both objective indicators, such as payment flows, payback period, profitability, production volume, and others, as well as subjective assessments, such as the social significance of the project, the image of the company, etc.

The effectiveness of a management decision can be divided by the levels of its development and implementation, the coverage of people and companies. The system of quantitative and qualitative assessments based on real indicators, norms and standards manages the effectiveness of a management decision. An important feature of a management decision as a product of management activity is its intangible essence.

The effectiveness of the functioning of the organization to a very large extent depends on the quality of management decisions. This determines the importance of mastering all responsible employees of the administrative apparatus, and above all, the heads of organizations, with theoretical knowledge and practical skills in the development and implementation of optimal management decisions.

Thus, the effectiveness of managerial decisions is the main characteristic of the decisions made, which is determined by the quality of the decision, its impact on improving performance, as well as the emotional agreement of the performers with it. Evaluation of the effectiveness of managerial decision-making plays an important role in the activities of the entire enterprise as a whole. It is necessary for the further work of the organization, because if the decision made turns out to be ineffective, then the work of all departments will also be ineffective.

The economic efficiency of a management decision is characterized by the ratio of the cost of the surplus product obtained through the implementation of a specific management decision and the costs of its preparation and implementation. Surplus product can be presented in the form of profit, cost reduction, productivity increase, loans, etc.

The social efficiency of a management decision is considered as the result of achieving social goals for a larger number of employees and the company in a shorter time, with a smaller number of employees, and lower financial costs.

The values ​​of the quantities included in the formula can be determined on the basis of operational accounting data and accounting data of the organization.

Evaluation of management efficiency can be carried out for various calendar periods of time (month, quarter, year). The dynamics of these indicators allows us to draw a conclusion about the effectiveness of the management apparatus.

Chapter 2. Analysis of the process of making managerial decisions in Element-Trade LLC

2.1 General characteristics of Element-Trade LLC

"Element - Trade" is a limited liability company. Legal address of the company: Yekaterinburg, st. Shcherbakova, 4. Postal address of LLC "Element-Trade": Ekaterinburg Sibirsky Trakt 12 building 5. The scope of the company according to the constituent documents:

Retail trade in foodstuffs;

Retail trade in industrial goods;

retail trade in alcoholic, low-alcohol and non-alcoholic drinks and juices;

Retail sale of tobacco products;

Retail sale of frozen products;

retail trade in animal feed;

production of ready-to-eat products.

The first "Coin" in Yekaterinburg appeared in the spring of 2001. Then two stores were opened: one - Cash & Carry format, the other - an economy class supermarket. The network was founded by the company R-Modul (specialization: trade in cigarettes, chocolate, confectionery). By 2003, there were 6 stores. In 2004, the "Coin" store appeared in Tyumen, N. Tagil. In 2005, retail chain stores appeared in Ufa and Chelyabinsk. 2006 - shops were opened in Kurgan, and 3 new supermarkets appeared. The opening of the 100th store took place in 2007. Also, the trading network began work in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug and the first store appeared in Moscow. Since 2008, its own distribution center has been operating. Now suppliers no longer need to deliver goods to stores in small batches. All goods are received by the distribution center, then delivered to the stores of the network. In 2010, there were already 200 stores, and in 2011 the retail chain entered the Siberian Federal District. In 2012, there were 400 stores. As of July 2013, there were 500 stores in the trading network.

The trading network "Monetka" today is one of the leaders in Yekaterinburg and the Ural region (supermarkets and discounters). TS "Monetka" stores operate in the Chelyabinsk, Tyumen, Kaluga, Vladimir, Kurgan, Moscow, Sverdlovsk regions; Republic of Bashkortostan; in the Perm region; in the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs.

The organizational structure of the enterprise is presented in Appendix 2.

The leading position belongs to the General Director - one of the founders of the Company. It performs the following functions:

management of company property

· Establishes staffing schedule,

Opens current and other accounts,

issues orders and gives instructions binding on all employees,

determines the structure of the administrative apparatus, the number, qualifications and staffing,

hires (appoints) and dismisses employees of the company,

· signs agreements with partners.

Annex 2 does not present the complete structure of the organization, store directors report to the regional manager of the corresponding region. Each director of the store has two deputies: for the trading floor and for the warehouse, who are subordinate to the administrators of the trading floor and warehouse workers, respectively. Each department in the store (dairy, industrial, confectionery, etc.) has an administrator to whom the sellers of the corresponding department report, cashiers report to the senior cashier.

2.2 Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise

The analysis of economic activity is an important element in the production management system, an effective means of identifying on-farm reserves, management decisions and monitoring their implementation in order to increase the efficiency of the enterprise.

First of all, it is necessary to analyze the balance sheet of Element - Trade LLC, presented in Appendix 1.

The property of the enterprise increased from 2008 to 2012. This happened due to an increase in the value of non-current assets, which increased mainly due to an increase in the value of fixed assets and construction in progress. The following changes occurred in the composition of current assets: stocks decreased by 2012 after some increase in 2009; accounts receivable tend to decrease. Positive dynamics is typical for short-term financial investments, and the amount of funds fluctuates throughout the entire study period.

In general, the value of current assets is reduced.

Sources of formation of property of the organization for the period under review also increased. At the same time, the share of own funds did not change, although retained earnings increased 1.5 times. Long-term liabilities slightly decreased, but short-term loans increased at the same time.

The amount of loans and credits decreases, but the share of accounts payable increases, mainly due to an increase in debt to suppliers and contractors.

The results of the analysis of the profit and loss statement of Element - Trade LLC are shown in table 1.

Table 1

Gains and losses report

The table shows that the amount of profit of Element - Trade LLC fluctuates, but still grows in 2012, this is due to an increase in gross profit. However, management costs are growing, so the amount of profit from sales is not growing as significantly as gross profit. The growth of net profit is positively affected by the increase in other income.

The calculation of financial stability indicators is presented in table 2.

table 2

Indicators of financial stability

Indicators of the financial stability of an enterprise characterize the structure of the capital used by the enterprise from the standpoint of its solvency and financial stability of development. These indicators make it possible to assess the degree of protection of investors and creditors, as they reflect the company's ability to repay long-term obligations. This group of indicators is also called indicators of the capital structure and solvency or coefficients for managing sources of funds.

The data in the table show that the autonomy coefficient, after a slight decrease by 2010, then rises, almost to the previous level, but always remains below the optimal value. This suggests that the company's assets are formed mainly from borrowed capital, and the company does not have sufficient independence and opportunities to conduct an independent financial policy.

The coefficient of financial dependence shows the amount of funds raised per 1 ruble. own. There are no significant changes in this indicator, and in 2012 the enterprise attracted 3 rubles 62 kopecks for one ruble of its own capital. So, as already noted, the dependence of this enterprise on external sources is great.

The dependence on borrowed funds also confirms the value of the equity financing ratio of borrowed funds.

The coefficient of maneuverability of own funds shows the ability of the enterprise to maintain the level of its own working capital and replenish working capital, if necessary, from its own sources. At this enterprise, this indicator is falling, thus, the ability to replenish working capital at the expense of its own is becoming lower and lower.

The coefficients given in table 3 characterize the efficiency of the enterprise's use of its total assets or any of their types. They show how much revenue each ruble of assets provides, how quickly assets turn around in the course of the enterprise's activities.

Table 3

Business Activity Indicators

The asset turnover ratio reflects the rate of turnover of the entire capital of the organization or the efficiency of using all available resources, regardless of their sources. The data in Table 4 show that the organization began to complete the full circulation cycle more slowly, making a profit, but in 2012 there is a tendency to accelerate.

The inventory turnover ratio shows that overstocking either decreases or increases, and the smaller the overstocking, the faster you can pay off debts.

The turnover of receivables and the time of its circulation almost does not change, the average period of time required for the company to receive money after selling products is 47 days. The turnover ratio of accounts payable tends to decrease, and the time of its circulation increases and by 2012 is 171 days. Thus, one can note a faster turnover of accounts receivable compared to accounts payable, which means that the debts of debtors quickly turn into cash. Accordingly, by the time the enterprise needs to pay off creditors, there is no shortage of cash in circulation.

The stability of the financial position of the organization and its business activity are characterized by the ratio of receivables and payables. In Element-Trade LLC, accounts payable prevail over receivables, but this predominance is declining and by 2012 is 0.27 rubles. accounts receivable for 1 rub. accounts payable. As we can see, the value of this indicator is lower than the recommended one, and this may be a factor leading to a low level of liquidity. Therefore, despite the higher turnover of receivables, cash in circulation may still not be enough to pay off accounts payable, especially if this indicator continues to decline.

The finished product turnover ratio shows how many times a year finished products are circulated. This figure fluctuates. The turnover of working capital practically does not change during the study period, and in 2012 each type of working capital was consumed and renewed once a year. The equity turnover ratio reflects the activity of using cash. The value of this indicator is decreasing, which indicates the inactivity of a part of own funds. And the rate of turnover of attracted capital, on the contrary, increases.

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Today, in the conditions of market transformations in Russia, the need to ensure high-quality management of various processes and phenomena is of great importance. One of the main elements of the management process is the development and adoption of management decisions.

Among the huge number of problems of modern management, the most important of them are the stages of a managerial decision, which is the main tool for managing influence. This problem is of serious importance, which increases with the complexity of economic situations and management tasks that require management decisions. This is also evidenced by the increasing scale of losses as a result of even small errors made in the decision.

The development of managerial decisions is an extremely important process that connects the main functions of management: motivation, planning, organization, control. At each enterprise, management decisions determine not only the effectiveness of its activities, but also the possibility of sustainable development, survival in a rapidly changing world. The importance of the decision-making process was realized by mankind simultaneously with the beginning of its conscious collective activity. Consequently, the development of management theory took place simultaneously with the development of the science of decision making.

The main part of the work of enterprise managers is the process of making managerial decisions. That is why understanding all the intricacies of the decision-making process in various conditions, knowledge and application of various methods and models of decision-making plays a significant role in improving the efficiency of managerial personnel.

Effective decision-making is necessary for the performance of managerial functions. Therefore, the decision-making process is the central point of management theory. Management science seeks to improve organizational performance by increasing management's ability to make informed, objective decisions in situations of extreme complexity through the use of models and quantitative methods.

Decision making is directly related to purposeful human activity. In personal life, each person makes decisions about family structure, budget allocation, recreation, choice of profession, etc. The formationﻩ and selection of these decisions are usually made empirically: through logical thinking and intuition. In parallel with the adoption of personal decisions, a person considers various decisions that ariseﻩ in the course of his official activity. This activity characterizes the work of both managers and the work of managers who both personally make decisions and organize the work of their employees in the preparation and implementation of certain decisions.

In the course of the production and financial activities of any enterprise, situations often arise when there is a need to choose one of severalﻩ possible options for action. As a result of this choice, a concrete and definite solution appears.

Improving the process of making managerial decisions can be carried out using expert methods.

Since the optimization process is expensive, it is advisable to use it when solving strategic and tactical problems. Operational tasks should be solved using, as a rule, simple, heuristic methods.

The number of possible concrete methods is almost as great as the number of problems for which they have been developed. The most common will be described below.

Jury opinion. This method consists in combining and averaging the opinions of experts in relevant fields. An informal variation of this method is brainstorming, during which the participants first try to generate as many ideas as possible. Only after the generation process is stopped are some ideas evaluated. This can be time consuming but often produces useful results, especially when an organization needs many new ideas and alternatives.

Aggregate opinion of marketers. Experienced salespeople are often excellent at predicting future demand. They are intimately familiar with consumers and can take into account their recent actions faster than a quantitative model can be built. In addition, a good sales agent at a certain time period often "feels" the market in fact more accurately than quantitative models.

consumer expectation model. A forecast based on the results of a survey of the organization's customers. They are asked to evaluate their own future needs as well as new requirements. By collecting all the data obtained in this way and adjusting for over- or underestimation based on their own experience, the manager is often able to accurately predict aggregate demand.

Method of expert assessments. This method is a procedure that allows a group of experts to come to an agreement. The experts complete a detailed questionnaire about the problem under consideration. They also write down their opinions about her. Each expert then receives a summary of the other experts' answers and is asked to re-examine their prediction, and if it does not match the others' predictions, they are asked to explain why. The procedure is usually repeated three or four times until the experts reach a consensus.

Development of practical recommendations for improving the process of making managerial decisions

For enterprises with less than 100 employees, an initiative target technology for the development and adoption of managerial decisions can be used.

As mentioned earlier, the company LLC "Leader" operates in the wholesale and retail market and, taking into account the mission of the organization, namely the expansion of the distribution network, it is necessary to transfer all the functions related to decision-making on the development of a new product and its promotion within its distribution network to another division.

When developing a new product, a company needs to develop a technology in which we must decide how to organize the supply of goods and its implementation. To develop technology, we use the algorithm for developing technology for the development and adoption of managerial decisions shown in Figure 2.

Rice. 2 - Algorithm for the development of technology for the development and adoption of SD

First of all, let's consider the development process using the initiative-target technology for the development and management decision-making. This technology is based on the issuance of tasks for the development and adoption of management decisions, without specifying the means and methods for their implementation.

It is designed for an enterprising and professional performer, whether it be a manager or a specific employee. The technology provides for the development by the head of only the ultimate goal of management and its accompanying tasks, as well as the deadline without specifying the mechanism for achieving it. This technology has the following characteristics:

management decision is developed for the company's staff of no more than 100 people, so that possible failures do not bring large losses to the company;

· the time for completing the task should not exceed one month from the date of its issuance, also in order to avoid losses;

the presence of a high level of professionalism of the staff or great confidence in him on the part of the head;

production of new goods, services, information or knowledge;

the presence of stable informal relationships in the team, to speed up the receipt of assistance in the process of completing the task.

And so, the company's management decided to bring a new product. Tasks:

Bringing a new brand to an existing market

ensure the presentation of this product in chain stores and chain restaurants;

Creating a positive opinion about the new product.

Using the initiative-target technology, the company's management brings this goal to the managers, respectively, without telling how the goal-task should be fulfilled. In such a situation, the actions of the manager come down to developing their own process for solving the tasks.

We model the situation. We need to start working with a large chain of stores. To do this, the manager independently develops an action plan and implements it. Suppose we have two ways:

1. Enter into direct negotiations with the leadership of this network, which is often quite problematic. And in the course of negotiations, choose a variant of cooperation that would suit both parties.

2. Having contacts with friendly - partner companies that already have existing contracts with networks to offer new beer to them, since in such a situation we lose part of our income, since the price at which we give beer is not directly to the store, but through a distributor below, but we get the presence of beer in the chain of stores, which is our ultimate goal.

We chose the first option and are ready to independently enter into negotiations with the management of the chain of stores. To do this, we draw up a preliminary commercial offer, prepare a description of the product indicating its properties and unique features, and prepare samples.

If the negotiation process was successful, then we, having fulfilled the goal, begin to deal with the issue of monitoring the fulfillment of the obligations of the parties. Using some merchandising opportunities, we track the movement of the product, its layout, and conduct research on consumer demand. To improve the quality of sales, we carry out advertising campaigns and events to promote the product to a wider consumer market. Due to his professional skills, the manager independently models the situation and looks for solutions.

The manager is responsible for the implementation of the decision in this company, he determines:

· the terms and parameters of the implementation of the solution, when using the initiative target technology, this time is limited to a month;

Resources by means of which the project will be implemented;

The result of the decision must fully comply with the goals that were set by the authorities.

The development and adoption of a decision is a key procedure in the activities of the leader, which determines the entire further course of the management process, in particular the final result of management activities.

A decision is always a choice of an alternative. Sometimes, due to unconscious psychological factors, we pay a disproportionate amount of attention to certain decisions. However, in management, decision-making is a more systematized process than in private life. The stakes are often much higher. The manager chooses the course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization and other employees. Management decisions can greatly influence the behavior and lives of many people.

The decision refers to the number of creative operations in the technology of managerial work. On the one hand, in terms of content, this is a logical and mental activity performed mainly by management personnel. On the other hand, decision is an emotional-psychological act. Like no other type of managerial work, the decision is due to the psycho-physiological traits of the leader's personality. Finally, the decision acts as a management procedure, therefore, it must be carefully organized, regulated with the help of legal norms.

Improving the quality of decisions taken by economic managers is the most important reserve for raising the efficiency of all social production. Unsatisfactory results of decisions made are primarily due to ignorance or neglect of the theory of decision making in management.

Decision theory

Decisions made should be based on reliable, current and predictable information, analysis of all facts that influence decisions, taking into account the foreseeing of its possible consequences. Managers are obliged to constantly and comprehensively study incoming information in order to prepare and make management decisions based on it, which must be coordinated at all levels of the intra-company hierarchical management pyramid. Difficulties in managing modern large-scale production led to the widespread use of electronic computers, the development of automated control systems, which required the creation of a new mathematical apparatus and economic and mathematical methods.

Since the manager has the opportunity to choose decisions, he is responsible for their implementation. The adopted decisions are submitted to the executive bodies and are subject to control over their implementation. Therefore, management must be purposeful, the goal of management must be known. In the control system, the principle of choosing a decision to be made from a certain set of decisions must be observed. The more choice, the more effective management.

When choosing a management decision, the following requirements are imposed on it: the validity of the decision; optimal choice; validity of the decision; brevity and clarity; specificity in time; targeting to performers; efficiency of execution.

The requirements for management technology can be reduced to the following:

The formulation of problems, the development and selection of solutions should be concentrated at the level of the management hierarchy where there is relevant information for this;

Information should come from all departments of the company located at different levels of management and performing various functions;

The choice and adoption of a decision should reflect the interests and capabilities of those levels of management that will be entrusted with the implementation of the decision or that are interested in its implementation;

Subordination in relations in the management hierarchy, strict discipline, high demands and unquestioning obedience must be strictly observed.

Making managerial decisions involves the use of the following factors: hierarchy; target cross-functional groups; formal rules and procedures; plans; horizontal connections. The use of hierarchy in decision-making is carried out by most firms in order to coordinate activities and strengthen centralization in management.

Task Forces are usually set up on a temporary basis. Their members are selected from various departments and levels of management. The purpose of creating such groups is to use the special knowledge and experience of group members to make specific and complex decisions. Target groups are most often involved in the creation of new products. Then they include engineers, marketing specialists, production workers, financiers, and suppliers. Initially, they prepare information at a high professional level, on the basis of which top management decides to allocate capital investments for the development and implementation of new products. The head of the target cross-functional group is one of its members or a higher head, who can be replaced by another specialist in the course of work. The use of formal rules and procedures in decision making is an effective way to coordinate actions. However, regulations and rules stiffen the management system, which slows down innovation processes and makes it difficult to amend plans due to changing circumstances.

The use of plans in decision-making is aimed at coordinating the activities of the firm as a whole. Planning is that important type of management activity on which managers spend a significant part of their time. In the course of drawing up plans, a process of combining interests and goals between different levels of government is carried out. Control and accounting systems are adapted in American firms to solve managerial problems, and plans are being developed on their basis. Managers constantly monitor the implementation of planned indicators and have the opportunity to correct them if such a need is justified in front of the top managers of the company or heads of production departments.

The use of direct (direct) horizontal connections in decision-making without recourse to senior management contributes to decision-making in a shorter time, increasing responsibility for the implementation of decisions made. In American firms, managers at various levels have the right to make direct contacts with partners external to the firm: consumers, suppliers, regulatory organizations, which allow them to receive specific information about the market situation and make decisions that facilitate rapid adaptation to changing conditions. The practice of making managerial decisions is determined to a large extent by the traditions and customs that exist in different countries.

The correctness and effectiveness of the decision is largely determined by the quality of economic, organizational, social and other types of information. Conventionally, all types of information that are used in making a decision can be divided into: incoming and outgoing; processed and unprocessed; text and graphics; constant and variable; normative, analytical, statistical; primary and secondary; directive, distributive, reporting.

A correctly set task predetermines the need for specific information for making a decision. Therefore, the accuracy of the task statement plays an important role in the process of decision-making by the manager.

Decision-making is inherent in any type of activity, and the effectiveness of the work of one person, a group of people or the entire people of a certain state may depend on it. From an economic and managerial point of view, decision-making should be considered as a factor in increasing production efficiency. The efficiency of production, of course, in each case depends on the quality of the decision made by the manager.

All decisions made in any field of activity can be conditionally classified and divided into decisions: according to the strategy of the enterprise; arrived; sales; issues that affect the formation of profits. Fulfilling their functional duties, each manager chooses the most optimal solutions that contribute to the implementation of the task.

Management decision is the result of a specific management activity of the manager. Decision making is the basis of management.

Development and decision making is a creative process in the activities of leaders of any level, including:

development and goal setting;

studying the problem on the basis of the information received;

selection and justification of criteria for efficiency (effectiveness) and possible consequences of the decision;

discussion with specialists of various options for solving the problem (task);

selection and formulation of the optimal solution;

decision-making;

specification of the decision for its executors.

Goals of making managerial decisions. Careful consideration of the decision-making process in order to better understand it leads to the need for a clear definition of goals and objectives. Often goals or, in any case, factors directly related to them are both quantitative (objective) and qualitative (subjective). In these cases, the application of scientific decision-making methods requires maturity of judgment and foresight, as well as analytical and mathematical skills.

Decision makers often don't realize the importance of making a list alternatives.

It is quite obvious that, in the end, not the best alternative among those considered may be chosen. In this sense, the quality of choice is limited by the quality of alternatives. An exhaustive list of available alternatives is of great help in making decisions. Decision-making is the choice of one of the alternatives, and listing them is an integral part of this process. In a sense, listing alternatives is exactly the same as defining a problem in engineering analysis. When the alternatives are vague, incomplete, or even ill-conceived, it is impossible to make a decision. However, when the alternatives are clearly listed, the task is no longer intangible.

Factors when making management decisions: time, money and production capabilities. Production capabilities here mean such diverse things as the availability of materials, parts, technical and scientific skill, organizational capabilities, etc. It is typical for engineering decisions that, without special study or research, information about the essential aspects of such factors may not be complete enough.

TO technical factors include factors that are directly related to engineering analysis or design requirements. Typically, technical factors are specific and quantified.

In addition to resources and technical factors, purely human factors. These factors express not only the requirements of the political or social expediency of implementing or achieving an alternative, but also the requirements of human ethics and morality. Making the right decision requires not only technical competence in assessing resources and technical factors, but also consideration of purely human factors.

The procedure for making managerial decisions.

1. The goal is formulated.

2. The most complete list of alternatives is compiled. (This requires creativity and ingenuity.)

3. A more complete list of factors is compiled.

4. A list of consideration factors is used to reduce the number of alternatives, while paying attention to the reason for excluding each alternative. At this stage, it can be seen that many of the alternatives are unrealistic. Other alternatives may be highly impractical.

5. The remaining alternatives are used to reduce the list of factors, some of which can no longer be considered. Other factors may equally apply to all the remaining alternatives and therefore do not need to be considered any further.

The solution is characterized by the following features:

The ability to choose from a variety of alternative options: if there are no alternatives, then there is no choice and, therefore, there is no solution;

Presence of purpose: aimless choice is not seen as a decision;

The need for a volitional act of the leader when choosing a decision, since the subject of decision-making forms it through the struggle of motives and opinions.

Management decisions can be justified, made on the basis of economic analysis and multivariate calculation, and intuitive, which, although they save time, contain the possibility of errors and uncertainty. The decision itself is a compromise. Decisions must weigh judgments of value, which include consideration of economic factors, technical feasibility and scientific necessity, as well as social and purely human factors. To make the “right” decision means to choose such an alternative from among the possible ones in which, taking into account all these various factors, the overall value will be optimized. It is often necessary to sacrifice some of one of the characteristics (for example, reliability) in order to get a gain in another (for example, in costs).

The task of the decision maker is to find alternatives that represent the best compromise, taking into account all the factors considered. In some cases, the best compromise can be found by resorting to scientific decision-making methods, i.e. using mathematical optimization methods, probability theory, mathematical statistics, or utility theory. In other cases, decision-making is an extremely complex matter that is subjective and involves taking into account non-quantitative human factors and judgments of value.

After studying this chapter, you will be able to:

• discuss the classification features of management decisions, the requirements for them, methods and algorithmization of development and adoption;
• describe and explain the process of analyzing the dependence "costs - production volume - profit";
• formulate the concept of analysis and decision-making in the field of pricing;
• understand the use of pricing methods;
• present and explain the process of analyzing and making long-term investment decisions.

ANALYSIS AND MAKING SHORT-TERM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

In modern conditions of business functioning, the key task of management accounting is the accumulation of various information that contributes to the adoption of correct and timely management decisions.

Under making a management decision one should understand the totality of the selected actions aimed at the most effective solution of the task in the given conditions, taking into account external and internal factors of the economic environment.

The main indicator of the effectiveness of the decision is optimality factor, which is characterized by such qualitative or quantitative indicators as profit, the amount of labor, time and other resources necessary to achieve the goal.

Management decisions are classified according to the following criteria:

• political;
• organizational;
• technical;
• economic;

by the number of decision makers:

• collective;
• individual;

depending on duration:

• long-term;
• medium-term;
• short-term;

according to the nature of the impact:

• strategic;
• tactical;

by the number of assigned tasks:

• single purpose;
• multipurpose;

by the size of the control object:

• are common;
• local;

according to the degree of completeness and reliability of the information available:

• decisions made under conditions of certainty;
• decisions made under conditions of partial certainty;
• decisions made under conditions of uncertainty;
• decisions made under conditions of risk;
• decisions made in conflict situations.

In addition, the decisions made are subject to a number of requirements that they must fully comply with: be effective, timely, imply the rational use of enterprise resources, have an economic justification, and be realistically feasible.

The development of management decisions is carried out according to the following general algorithm:

• identification of a range of problems that need to be solved;
• setting goals and objectives to be achieved as part of solving the identified problem;
• choice of decision-making method in a specific economic situation and criteria for the effectiveness of the results obtained;
• development of a set of measures to achieve the goals;
• evaluation according to the selected criterion of the complexes of measures aimed at achieving the goal, and the choice of the optimal of them. The implementation of this algorithm can be represented as

the process of preparation and adoption of operational, tactical and (or) strategic management decisions (Fig. 4).

When making decisions, the following conditions must be observed: the goal must be quantified and allow minimizing or maximizing some indicator of economic activity; consideration of possible events that may speed up or slow down the achievement of the goal; an indication of the probability of achieving each of the possible events, the results that can be obtained by considering the probability of occurrence of one of the possible alternatives.

Rice. 4.

The process of making a managerial decision is based on predictive information about the future development of various events and factors based on the use of a set of models - descriptive, analytical, simulation (Fig. 5).

Descriptive models are used in identifying and identifying problem situations and tasks that need to be solved, while analytical and simulation models are used in the analysis of cause-and-effect relationships (“if ... then ...”), alternative solutions to the problem, expected values ​​of various options for action , comparing these options under given conditions in order to make decisions.

When making managerial decisions, various hypotheses about the state of the external environment are taken into account:

a) unambiguous expectations of the future state of the external environment (solutions under certainty):

Cm.: Sokolov Ya.V. Accounting: from its origins to the present day. - M.: Audit: UNITI, 1996.

• choosing a solution from an infinite number of alternatives;
• choosing a solution from a limited number of alternatives;
• b) multi-valued expectations (decisions under uncertainty).

Rice. 5. Use of different models in the decision-making process 1

Analytical calculations in this case are goals expressed in specific indicators, alternatives for achieving goals, the consequences of the impact of alternatives on goals, the actual results of the implementation of management decisions, deviations from the expected results.

In this case, the calculations are made in the following sequence:

• problem formulation;
• development and description of alternatives;
• determination of impacts.

There are a number of methods that should be used in the development and adoption of management decisions:

traditional methods- are used in conditions of certainty for the development and solution of typical situations. The basis for their application are special economic calculations, a transparent situation on the market. These methods are quite common, their main advantage is the test

tannost and ease of use, and some shortcomings appear as the complexity of production processes;

• economic and mathematical methods- are based on a combination of economic and mathematical methods in achieving the goals. These are economic-statistical methods, optimization methods, methods of economic cybernetics and econometrics. They are very effective in solving problems in the field of automated control systems for production processes. The main disadvantage of these methods is the difficulty of their application in other areas, where many qualitative characteristics, such as social, psychological, organizational, political, cannot be expressed in quantitative parameters, which greatly narrows the scope of their application;
• systematic methods- may be based on experience, logic, the use of various methods of evaluation or collective discussion. These include heuristic methods, peer review methods, brainstorming, statistical methods, the Delphi method, etc. These methods are highly effective in conditions of uncertainty and are based on the intellectual abilities of a person in combination with the use of computers;
• system target methods- should be used when solving interrelated problems. These include:

methods of system analysis:

• - system decomposition, i.e. division of the system into elements, highlighting the relationships between them and assessing each according to the degree of influence on the achievement of the ultimate goal;
• - system diagnostics, i.e. study of each fragment of the system and the system itself as a whole to identify the areas most sensitive to the impact;

program-target methods- are based on the fundamental meaning of the goal; Based on this, an algorithm for achieving it is compiled. As a rule, this algorithm is presented in the form of a tree of goals, highlighting the main goal and lower-order goals, as well as the stages of their achievement.

The information obtained from the results of solving the tasks, problems, situations leads to various alternative solutions.

The alternativeness of decision-making is based on the definition of a system of indicators for each option and on this basis making a decision with the choice of the best option regarding changes in the performance and efficiency of the enterprise.

An alternative decision principle is based on the use of the decision tree mechanism:

• possible alternatives with access to relevant indicators;
• the likely consequences of each alternative;
• the level of likelihood of consequences.

The informational value of the decision tree method is significant, since it gives the management of the enterprise the following opportunities:

• more accessible graphical representation of the problems being solved;
• presentation of individual solutions in their interconnection;
See: Khan D., Hungenberg X. Decree. op.